In recent weeks, the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market has faced uncertainty amid forecasts suggesting a possible drop below $50,000. At the same time, the controversy surrounding Justin Sun and his request to unlock frozen tokens on the WLFI platform has drawn attention in the DeFi ecosystem. Additionally, shifting expectations on U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy could impact digital assets’ behavior. This analysis examines these key factors and their potential implications for investors and the crypto market.

Macroeconomic Context and Adjustments in Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

The latest U.S. jobs report showed weak growth, with only 22,000 new jobs in August—far below the forecast of 75,000. This economic signal has led several financial institutions to revise their interest rate expectations.

According to Bloomberg, Bank of America has shifted its stance and now anticipates at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in September and December 2025. This shift suggests a more accommodative Federal Reserve approach, aiming to stimulate the economy amid potential slowdown concerns.

Bearish Forecast for Bitcoin: Factors That Could Push It Below $50,000

In this scenario, a recent analysis warns that Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 in a bear market projected for 2026. The main reasons include:

• Global economic environment: While lower rates may initially boost risk assets, volatility and uncertainty could weigh on cryptocurrency prices in the medium and long term.
• Market sentiment: Concerns over stricter regulations and issues in DeFi projects such as WLFI are increasing investor caution.
• Capital flows: Institutional investors shifting to safe-haven assets could trigger significant sell-offs in the crypto market.

Although some experts argue that Bitcoin has strong fundamentals to avoid sharp declines, the general outlook points to heightened volatility in the coming years.

Justin Sun and the WLFI Controversy: Unlocking Frozen Tokens

Justin Sun, founder of Tron and a prominent figure in the crypto ecosystem, has publicly requested that WLFI unlock frozen tokens affecting numerous users. WLFI, a DeFi protocol, has faced operational difficulties limiting access to these assets.

This move seeks to restore confidence and avoid negative market perception. The situation highlights the risks and challenges faced by decentralized projects, emphasizing the importance of transparency and governance.

Impact on Ethereum and Other Major Cryptocurrencies

Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies could also be affected by these events. Anticipated accommodative monetary policy may favor investment in digital assets due to lower returns in traditional instruments.

However, regulatory uncertainty and problems in DeFi platforms create a cautious environment. In particular, Ethereum’s technological evolution and adoption remain key factors in its future valuation.

Regulatory Aspects and Their Influence on the Crypto Market

This week, regulatory debates in the U.S. and Europe over the oversight of cryptocurrencies and DeFi projects intensified. The implementation of stricter legal frameworks could affect liquidity and investor behavior.

The WLFI situation and the involvement of figures like Justin Sun underscore the need for regulatory mechanisms that protect users and ensure the stability of the crypto ecosystem.

Conclusion

The outlook for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the short and medium term is shaped by multiple variables generating uncertainty. The potential drop of Bitcoin below $50,000 in a bear market projected for 2026 must be analyzed within the context of U.S. monetary policy and internal challenges in DeFi projects like WLFI.

The actions of influential figures like Justin Sun and emerging regulatory decisions will play a decisive role in shaping the market’s direction. Investors must monitor these factors to adapt to a highly volatile and dynamic environment.