Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar has stated that the commercial Bitcoin mining industry could face collapse within the next two years following the upcoming halving. While technical mining will continue, economic conditions and competition from state actors could make large-scale private mining operations unsustainable.

What the Halving Is and How It Affects Bitcoin Mining

The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, cutting in half the reward miners receive for validating blocks. This mechanism controls inflation and ensures Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity.

However, the halving reduces mining profitability since revenues decrease while operational costs—such as electricity and maintenance—remain constant. This can force less efficient miners to exit the activity.

Sam Tabar warns that the next reduction will be especially critical for commercial mining, which already faces tight margins and growing competition.

Main Factors Threatening Commercial Bitcoin Mining

Several elements put the survival of large-scale private mining at risk:

• Reduction of profit margins: The decrease in rewards after the halving reduces income while fixed costs may increase.
• Competition from state actors: Governments and sovereign entities could enter the market with resources and subsidies that displace private miners.
• Increased mining difficulty: The global computing power continues to grow, raising the difficulty of obtaining rewards.
• Regulatory and environmental pressures: Regulations targeting high energy consumption and environmental impact increase costs and limit operations.

Impact on the Bitcoin Network and Other Mining-Based Cryptocurrencies

The potential disappearance of large-scale commercial mining could affect the decentralization and security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using proof of work (PoW), such as Ethereum before its transition to proof of stake.

Mining concentration in a few hands—especially state-controlled—raises the risk of 51% attacks and undue control over the blockchain.

Additionally, this scenario encourages the search for more sustainable and decentralized models, such as proof of stake, adopted by Ethereum with its “The Merge” upgrade.

Uncertainty about mining profitability could also impact perception and confidence in Bitcoin investment, even though its value does not rely exclusively on mining.

Regulation and Its Influence on Cryptocurrency Mining

Cryptocurrency mining faces increasing regulatory scrutiny worldwide. For example, China banned commercial mining, while other countries impose strict environmental, tax, and energy regulations.

Government participation in mining may reflect geopolitical strategies to control critical infrastructure and gain economic advantages. This creates a fragmented and competitive environment where private mining has few opportunities without state support.

Moreover, regulators may demand more efficient technologies or the use of renewable energy, further raising costs and limiting mining expansion.

Conclusion

Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar’s outlook points to a challenging future for commercial Bitcoin mining. The upcoming halving, state competition, and regulatory pressures could lead to the disappearance of many private miners within two years.

Although technical mining will persist, its economic and commercial structure will change—impacting decentralization, security, and the evolution of the crypto ecosystem. This situation highlights the importance of exploring alternative consensus models and establishing a balanced regulatory framework.