Global bank Standard Chartered has released an optimistic report on the near future of Bitcoin (BTC), forecasting that the leading cryptocurrency will reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2024. This projection is based on a significant increase in institutional purchases, particularly from corporate treasuries and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bitcoin Halving Cycle and Its Historical Impact

Bitcoin’s halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years and cuts miner rewards in half. Historically, following this event, BTC's price experiences an initial surge followed by a significant correction 12 to 18 months later. The next halving is scheduled for the second half of 2025 and was expected to generate volatility or price declines.

However, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, suggests this dynamic may be changing. According to him, “thanks to increased investor inflows, we believe BTC has surpassed the historical trend of declines 18 months after the halving.” This implies that the anticipated negative impact following the 2025 halving could be less severe or even nonexistent.

Key Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook for 2024

The report identifies two key factors supporting the positive outlook for Bitcoin during the remainder of 2024:

• Increase in corporate treasury purchases: More and more companies are allocating part of their reserves to Bitcoin as an alternative asset to fiat currencies, generating sustained demand.
• Strong capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs: Exchange-traded funds have seen a significant rise in investment flows, facilitating institutional and retail capital entry through regulated and accessible vehicles.

These combined factors could drive Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $135,000 before the end of the third quarter of 2024, and potentially surpass $200,000 by year-end.

Potential Impact on Other Relevant Cryptocurrencies

Although the report focuses on Bitcoin, the positive expectations could also influence other major cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum (ETH). Institutional growth and the expansion of financial products linked to digital assets tend to benefit the broader crypto ecosystem, generating a domino effect that boosts investment in complementary tokens.

Ethereum, with its robust platform for smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi), could indirectly benefit from increased appetite for digital assets. The growing adoption of ETFs and related financial products could strengthen market liquidity and stability for both BTC and ETH.

Regulatory Context and Its Influence on the Crypto Market

The regulatory environment remains a key factor for the evolution of the cryptocurrency market. Although Standard Chartered’s report does not detail specific regulations, the growth of Bitcoin ETFs indicates that regulatory authorities are adopting a more structured and favorable approach toward these products.

The approval and regulation of ETFs in key markets such as the United States and Europe provide greater transparency and security, attracting previously cautious institutional investors. However, challenges persist regarding uniform global regulation, exchange oversight, and mitigating risks associated with volatility and potential market manipulation.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered’s forecast represents a significant shift in the traditional narrative surrounding the halving cycle’s impact on Bitcoin. The combination of increased institutional buying, particularly from corporate treasuries, and strong capital inflows into ETFs suggests a more resilient environment for BTC in the coming months.

While the 2025 halving remains a crucial event, the prospect of Bitcoin reaching $135,000 in the third quarter and surpassing $200,000 by year-end underscores the growing maturity and global adoption of cryptocurrencies. This scenario could also positively impact other leading cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum.

Regulatory progress around financial products based on digital assets continues to be an essential variable for the market’s sustainability and growth, providing the confidence and structure needed to attract a broader and more sophisticated audience.